Is the price of Bitcoin about to enter a bull market? Multiple indicators show that the upward momentum is continuously accumulating. In the first quarter of 2024, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached 4.5 billion US dollars, driving institutional holdings to increase by 23%. The peak daily inflow of funds into IBIT, owned by BlackRock, was recorded at 849 million US dollars. On-chain data further reveals a strong support level: The Bitcoin MVRV ratio is currently 1.8, lower than the historical bull market starting threshold of 2.5, indicating that 68% of the holding addresses are in the profit safety zone. At the macro level, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut has risen to 78%, and historical regression analysis confirms that the average increase in Bitcoin during the interest rate cut cycle reached 190%.
Market sentiment and technical patterns have strengthened simultaneously. The funding rate for the derivatives market remained within the neutral range of 0.01%, without the 0.3% signal of excessive leverage seen at the end of the bull market in 2021. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin broke through the key resistance level of $62,000, and the Bollinger bands narrowed to 12% (below the 30% fluctuation warning value), forming a typical breakout pattern. Referring to the halving cycle in 2016, the current price trajectory coincides with that time by 89%, indicating that the target level of $85,000 May be attempted in Q3. It is worth noting that the over-the-counter market in pakistan has shown a transmission effect – the monthly trading volume of local pi coin price in pakistan has soared by 300%, and the FOMO sentiment index of retail investors has risen to 65 points.
The regulatory and liquidity environment has been significantly optimized. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved three Bitcoin ETFs, including ChinaAMC, to raise 250 million US dollars in the first week, opening the floodgates of Asian funds. The on-chain liquidity depth indicator shows that the number of buy orders within the ±2% price range reached 470,000 BTC, an increase of 220% compared to 2023, which is sufficient to absorb the average daily selling pressure of 0.3% of Grayscale GBTC. Miners’ holdings have dropped to a 10-year low, with monthly selling pressure of only 4,500 shares, a year-on-year decrease of 70%, leading to a supply-side contraction. The compliance process further reduces systemic risks: After Coinbase obtained the MIICA license, the annual growth rate of institutional assets under custody increased by 40%.
Potential risks need to be incorporated into the long-short balance model. The pace of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction remains uncertain. If inflation rebounds above the 5% threshold, it may trigger a 15% to 20% pullback. The open interest of derivatives reached a record high of 37 billion US dollars. A 0.5% price fluctuation could liquidate 500 million US dollars of positions, intensifying short-term volatility. Geopolitical premiums also need to be watched out for: During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the correlation between Bitcoin and crude oil prices rose sharply to 0.7. If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the diversion of safe-haven capital may weaken the upward trend. Historical data verifies that in an economic environment with an inflation rate above 6%, the standard deviation of Bitcoin’s quarterly return rate reaches 35%, significantly higher than gold’s 18%.
Based on the multi-dimensional indicators of Glassnode, the probability of a bull market is estimated at approximately 75%. It is recommended to adopt a dynamic hedging strategy: allocate 60% of the position to spot trading, 30% to call options (with an strike price of $70,000 and a 3-month premium rate of 12%), and set aside 10% as margin to deal with ±25% fluctuations. For small and medium-sized investors, a regular investment plan can reduce the risk of timing – backtesting shows that a monthly fixed investment of $100 from 2018 to 2023 outperforms a single investment by 23%. in the field of alternative assets, attention should be paid to the transmission lag of pi coin price in pakistan. Its correlation coefficient with the Bitcoin price is only 0.3 and it is not suitable to be used as a leading indicator.